The Iranian strategy: heading toward failure?

Can Iran lose in Syria and maintain its influence in Lebanon at the same time? That is the equation that the Iranian regime is trying to resolve, despite the fact that their strategy goes against common sense. Iran seems determined to do everything to prove that its loss in Syria does not necessarily mean a loss in Lebanon, which clearly means that Lebanon is no more than an Iranian colony and everyone should accept this fact. Despite all the justifications released by the Secretary-General of Hezbollah, Hassan Nasrallah, there is a conviction in Tehran that the Syrian regime is over, as Assad has been fighting his own people for over 20 months. Lebanese are not stupid, contrary to what Nasrallah thinks. The Lebanese know that when Nasrallah confirms that the Syrian regime will not fall, it is a very clear indication that it certainly will fall. Most of the Lebanese don’t belong to Hezbollah, nor do they adhere to MP Michel Aoun’s Free Patriotic Movement, who is just a puppet in the hands of others. Do you remember the role Aoun played in the years 1988, 1989 and 1990, when he accepted the Syrian aids through the Lebanese parties -- linked to Damascus -- to pursue his war against the Lebanese Forces in order to destroy the Christian areas and displace the largest possible number of Lebanese Christians? We are currently witnessing another attempt to dominate Lebanon and tame its people, especially after Tehran intervened in the Lebanese parliamentary elections. The Iranian ambassador visited the Catholic Parish in the town of Zahle in the Bekaa Valley. He promised to grant the region aids, only to achieve one very clear objective:  the formation of a coalition list to ensure that friends of Iran will gain the majority in the next Parliament. Tehran did not forget that March 14 won the 2009 elections in Zahle, which secured the majority in Parliament for the supporters of Lebanon’s sovereignty. Iran is afraid to lose Zahle once again. It seeks to dominate all of Lebanon, through the parliamentary seats of the city, considered the capital of the Roman Catholic community. The parliamentary majority is no longer a majority after Hezbollah aimed its arms against the Lebanese people and forced Druze’s leader Walid Jumblatt, who wanted to protect the people of his community, to separate from the March 14 alliance and join the Iranian government formed by Mikati’s party. In the face of the Lebanese resistance to the Iranian project, Iran had to resort to escalation. Its ambassador travelled to Zahle to "convince" the people of his country’s project, in which it invested billions of dollars for more than thirty years in order to change the Shiite community in Lebanon. Iran seems in a hurry. It discovered that Mikati’s government failed to achieve what was publicly rejected by the Prime Minister Saad al-Hariri, whose government was overthrown after an agreement with the Syrian regime. Moreover it discovered that Saad al-Hariri is a free Lebanese and Arab person. He rejected Tehran's request to lift restrictions on Iranians getting visas to visit Lebanon. He also refused to sign a bilateral defence agreement with the Islamic nation. Mikati’s government cancelled all visa requirements from Iran. The extent of Iran’s influence on the Lebanese financial sector in the long term is still unknown. However, one thing is certain: Iran is trying to show that its influence over Lebanon is not related to its dominance on the Syrian regime. Iran is clearly working to destroy all the Lebanese institutions and hit the country’s economy.   But Iran forgot that the Lebanese previously rebelled against Syria and expelled the Syrian military from Lebanon. They did not expel the Syrian troops from Lebanon in order to turn their country into an Iranian colony. The Lebanese, as well as the Syrians, are aware that Lebanon was harshly defeated in the war of 2006 and that Israel has not only destroyed a part of the Lebanese infrastructure, but was happy to see what Hezbollah did to its own people, on behalf of Iran: ruining the economy, isolating the nation from the rest of the Arab world, humiliating Sunnis, Christians, Druze and Shiites who have a sense of patriotism. It is true that Iran can claim that it controls the Lebanese government, and that it takes the decisions of war and peace on behalf of Lebanon, but it is also true that Lebanon is resisting. All the honest people in Lebanon are resisting. More importantly, the recent Iranian actions indicated that it refuses to believe that its failure in Syria and its bet on a regime rejected by his people would have huge implications surpasses Lebanon and Zahle elections. It is impossible for the Iranian regime which failed in Syria to win in Lebanon. The region is changing. There is a new Arab world and a new map for the entire region, including Iran itself. A regime living on stirring sectarian strife and based on a shaky economy will not able to be a partner in drawing the new map of the region ... and the experience of the Soviet Union, which was much stronger than Iran, is the best proof of that! --- The views expressed by the author do not necessarily represent or reflect the editorial policy of Arabstoday.