Russia and Syria, Iran and Israel

The Syrian revolution will reach be triumphant. The Syrian people will have the last word in this revolution, and that is why we can dismiss any speculation coming from Russian officials regarding this revolution. The only meaningful words now are the words that are being written everyday by the Syrian people with their blood; the blood of the children of Daraa and the blood of the people of Homs, Hama, Aleppo, Damascus, Deir el-Zour, Idlib and all the cities and villages of Syria. What the Russians still fail to understand is that the vast majority of the Syrian people will not accept this regime to stay, and the threats of using a veto against any decree issued by the UN Security Council to help the Syrian people would only serve a regime which doesn't have any political legitimacy, a regime which is now only in power to extend the suffer of its people. Simply put, the Syrian regime doesn't have a clue about what is really happening in its country. President Bashar al-Assad speaks to the parliament in a way which reflects that he is really talking about another country which may have gone through similar things that Syria is now going through. The question now is not why the Russians are keen on supporting a regime which has been rejected by its own people, but why the Russians are eager to enforce more suffer on the Syrian people.  It is as if the Russians want to extend the Syrian crisis as long as possible, regardless of any danger that this crisis may continue to bring. On these dangers; there is the prospect of a split in the country, or the possibility of the emergence of more extremist groups. The longer the Syrian crisis goes on for, the bigger the chances that the crisis will evolve into a sectarian one, especially in the areas where Sunnites and Alawites co-exist. Looking at the massacres of Houla and Kbeir, it is easy to understand that the regime is trying to create a defensive seige mentality among the Alawite community, which will force the Alawites to protect the regime to the end, fearing they will pay the price of all its crimes in case the regime is overthrown. What is the point of Russia extending the Syrian crisis, at a time when all the Arab countries are well aware that Damascus is now ruled by the Iranian regime? And if we don't take into account Iranian interests in Syria, so does Russia keep supporting a regime that depends on raising Sunnite extremism to be countered by Alawite extremism, based on the feeling that the entire Alawite community is under threat if the regime is to step down? It is a confusing question indeed, unless Moscow believes that Iranian hegemony in the Middle East can ensure Russia retaining its interests in the region in a post-Assad era. This would be an very strange belief, taking into account recent Arab stances towards Tehran, as most Arab countries have been aware of Iranian plans to stoke sectarian tensions in the region, in order to extend Iranian influence over all the Middle East and North Africa. That would mean the Russians expect a bright future for the Iranian regime, especially in Iraq with its massive oil reserves, and regardless of the final scenario of the Syrian crisis. However, this vision ignores the fact that the United States is still the supreme power in the world, and this supreme power refuses - at least until now - to even negotiate with Iran about Tehran's influence in the Gulf, Iraq, Lebanon and of course Syria. Every time the Iranians tried to raise issues related to their regional role, the United States responsed negatively, as the Americans are only ready to discuss Iran's nuclear programme. The day will come when Iran will realise that all its plans to to exert influence in the Arab world will come to nothing. What are the Russians seeking in Syria? Does the Kremlin really believe that it can gain major benefits in the Middle East through their current approach towards Syria? If the answer is yes, then this strategy can be described as a "waste of time" at best, mainly because the Syrian issue wouldn't be a an important issue for any major power. If it was so, then the revolution would have ended long ago. What is getting clearer by the minute, is that the Syrian people are getting more eager to rid themselves of this regime. However, the time factor imposes some threats on the future of Syria. From here we can ask a serious question: would a separation in Syria benefit the Russians? Or is there a joint interest between Russia and Iran and Israel- which would benefit from divisions in the Arab region? The Russian stance is really confusing, especially as all the GCC states and most of the influential Arab countries have taken firm stances supporting the Syrian revolution and the Syrian people. Is the Russian leadership shameless  involved in stoking sectarian disputes in the Middle East, only to serve the interests of the non-Arab states in the region? These very states that were founded to remove the Arab identity from the map of the Middle East. -- The views expressed by the author do not necessarily represent or reflect the editorial policy of Arabstoday.