Key to solution is with Putin, not Annan?

I think that this is the last visit Annan will pay to Damascus. The man's mission is dying, taking with it the last chance of a resolution. There is nothing left for him to say except repeating the appeals and reminding the “parties” of their responsibilities and commitments according to his six points. The Syrian regime was not committed to Kofi Annan’s initiative. Assad's main concern in his last meetings with the Arab-UN envoy, was attempting to convince Annan of the necessity of condemning the armed groups, who are being financed and armed by  Arab and regional entities. Annan  blamed part of responsibility for the continuation and escalation of the devastating violence on the Syrian opposition, but also appealed to all parties to respond to his mission. The opposition, has also not responded to the UN initiative. On the contrary, it is moving towards a more militarisation approach, whilst chanting for “freedom and Jihad”. Neither the internal nor the external opposition shows any readiness to start a dialogue with the regime. The scene in Syria is gradually approaching the point of being out of any control. Neither the regime is able to control all the Syrian areas (35 percent of them are totally out of its control) on the one hand, nor is it able to maintain the discipline of its militias and thugs, which is what happened in Houla on the other. As for the armed opposition in Syria, I challenge anyone who says that it is a unified political and military unit. The Houla massacre has raised regional and international outrage, and opened the door to changes and shifts in the positions of the regional and international parties. It cannot be said that the campaign of expelling the Syrian ambassadors and diplomats from the western capitals is the only shift in policy. Some western nations have also called for the “military option” to be considered more seriously, even though it is still ruled out in the short term. The most important change to monitor should be that of the Russian position. Russia has issued some strange statements, which suggest that Moscow has become closer than ever to engage in a “package deal” with the US and the west regarding the Syrian crisis. This package is based on keeping the regime of Damascus, but with the abandonment of some of its and sacrifice of some of its symbols, most notably Bashar al-Assad. This is a transformation that has not been confirmed yet, although it has not been ruled out at all after “Houla,” especially if the Kremlin received an offer from the White House that it cannot reject. If the Russian position has changed, the last wall that protects the regime would collapse. Iran and its friends are not strong enough to prevent the fall of the “castle”. Moscow is the only power which can do that, and it has proved this safety net for the last 14 months. The pressure that the regime will not be able to resist is one which may come from Moscow, but Moscow will not give up its Syrian card, without guarantees and assurances, which only Washington can provide. I think a deal that is based on Moscow carrying out its mission of pressuring Damascus, promoting the “deal” to its allies in Iran, in return for Washington’s pressure on the opposition and their sources of financing and arms,  is sufficient to revive the mission of Annan. This certainly may happen, Assad will not remain in his position, or in the best case scenario he will not remain for long. The deal that we see would keep the “backbone” of the regime, and still provide key influence for the Alawites in the pyramid of power, at least for a transitional period. For the Alawites, the deal will preserve their rights and privileges,a s well as doing the same for the rest of the Syrian people. It will also open the door wide to an “election season”, with the results to decide what the new Syrian state will look like. This could happen under international supervision, where the Arabs through their League will be guests of honour in the signing ceremony. The Key to the solution is with Putin. Without him there is no political or military solution. This is as if we have returned to the time of the Cold War. Without bring the “czar of Russia” to the tables of the resolution, he will keep working in the trenches of confrontation. Also, because the west is not willing to send its troops to “unnecessary” wars, it is expected that the political solution, if there is any, will pass through the gate of Russia. Annan's task is over, his latest visit to Syria may be the last one, unless the upcoming US Russian summit will lead to a “deal”. Only then may Annan return to Syria, but by then there may be a new envoy or a new mission. If the deal stalls, the Assad regime will remain in its “den” for years according to recent Israeli intelligence reports. However, it will be a den sunken in a sea of divisions, massacres, sectarian violence and war, that will change the identity and map of Syria.