War and elections in the DRC

The West African state of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) has always been taking one step forward, two steps back. This goes back to the days when it became independent from Belgian rule in 1960.
Now we see it again. There were supposed to be elections at the end of last year, but President Joseph Kabila has clung to power. Two weeks ago, after months of negotiations led by Catholic bishops, a deal has been agreed. If he is given one more year in office, he will call elections in a year’s time.
The latest round in the DRC’s modern history goes back to the Rwandan genocide in 1994, when Hutu extremists organized the mass killing of at least half a million Tutsis. The killings triggered a civil war that led to the eventual defeat of the Hutu-led Rwandan army. As they retreated, they forced 2 million Hutus to leave with them, most of them settling in the eastern DRC in refugee camps.
From there, the Hutus, now well-fed by Western charities, began to launch armed incursions back into Rwanda. They were supported by the Congolese (then called Zaire) under the leadership of the tyrant President Mobutu Sese Seko. It was around that time that Rwandan President Paul Kagame decided on successful regime change in the DRC. Mobutu was driven out of the country.
The Tutsi Laurent Kabila became president. There were no government institutions to speak of in the DRC, and he was out of his depth. He banned all political parties. He became a second Mobutu and rejected Rwandan advice. Rwanda decided to eliminate the refugee camps and defeat the Hutu militants who were active around its border.
It also invaded the DRC, but this seemed not to help the security situation. What happened was the creation of a new rebel Hutu group. By the end of 1997, it had precipitated the worst killings since the genocide, and 15,000 had filtered back into Rwanda.
Nevertheless, the Tutsi-led Rwandans seized control of much of the DRC and claimed high offices in its government, causing popular resentment to build against them. Laurent became dependent on the Tutsis, soon after to be overthrown by Rwandan troops. This sparked what has been called “Africa’s world war.”
The Rwandans searched for a new Congolese pro-Rwandan puppet, but Angola, Zimbabwe, Chad, Libya and Sudan intervened on Laurent’s side. He was later assassinated by one of his guards. The present DRC ruler, his son Joseph, took over the presidency. The war became one of plundering the country’s rich natural resources. The Rwandan-led foreign intervention had not been successful.
After much negotiation the war ended officially in 2002, but violence in the east continued. The foreign intervention by Rwanda’s Tutsis had failed. Joseph remained firmly in the saddle and has continued to rule to the present day, a ruthless president who ordered the killing of anyone who organized, or even spoke, against him.
Unsurprisingly, a significant part of the population agitated against his rule, demanding elections, pushing for the observance of human rights, and bringing a halt to Joseph’s personal exploitation of the DRC’s resources. The Catholic bishops’ negotiation led to him for the first time agreeing to make a definite pledge that he will abide by the constitutional requirements forbidding him from standing for a third term.
He has agreed that an interim prime minister will come from the main opposition bloc led by his long-time opponent Etienne Tshisekedi, who is 84. The new agreement will also ensure that Joseph’s one-time ally Moise Katumbi, now perhaps his most important opponent, be permitted to return from exile.
Nevertheless, the opposition was not strong enough to prevent Joseph from claiming another year in office. He has played on the lack of opposition strength to push through his demand that elections not be held until April 2018. He claimed that elections scheduled for the end of last year would not work because millions of voters had not been added to the electoral rolls. The West loudly criticized this move.
Joseph has not hesitated over the years to order his security forces to deal with any opponents that protested against him. More than 50 protesters were killed in September, some of whom, according to the BBC, died after police threw them into opposition buildings set alight by the security forces. Another 40 were killed at the end of last year as they protested against Joseph’s decision to cancel the scheduled election.
Will he honor the bishops’ deal? Nobody knows. The president and his opponents have not so far signed the accord, and some issues have yet to be resolved. Some opposition groups, especially youth movements, are critical of the deal. This could give Joseph an escape route.