Ukraine may lose about $100 billion within a period from 2015 to 2018 if it severs cooperation ties with the Customs Union of Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan after reorienting towards the European Union, the Committee of Civil Initiatives said in a report entitled “The Dead-end of the Struggle of Integration Drives in Europe.”
According to experts, the most vulnerable to losses might be Ukrainian exports to Russia and other Customs Union countries, with an estimated loss of $14.3-15.3 billion. dollars a year. Apart from that, this shock scenario would include deterioration in trade and economic relations between Ukraine and the Customs Union countries and a slump in cash proceeds from labour migration, where losses are estimated at seven to eight billion U.S. dollars a year.
Moreover, Ukraine will run a risk of having to buy Russian gas at higher prices [an annual loss of 2.2-3.7 billion U.S. dollars], a risk of being short of Russian investments to a sum of about $2 billion a year, a risk of Russians’ refraining from trips to Ukraine ($1.5-1.6 billion), and a risk of scaling down of cooperation between Russian and Ukrainian freight operators (an estimated loss of $0.4 billion)
Experts however say the most adverse effects of such shock scenario would be felt for about two first years - in 2015 and 2016, with subsequent normalization of relations in 2017 and 2018.