The raging debate over a new parliamentary electoral law for next year is largely pointless because politicians aren’t committed to reform at the present time, in the view of analysts following the issue. They also voiced fears that the 2013 polls might be pushed back in light of political turmoil in the region. “Improving the quality of the [electoral] law has never been the case in Lebanon,” said Hilal Khashan, professor of political science at the American University of Beirut. “Electoral laws are altered according to political circumstances or to fit the interests of certain politicians and political groups.” A draft electoral law based on proportional representation authored by Interior Minister Marwan Charbel is heavily frowned upon by the Progressive Socialist Party of Druze leader Walid Jumblatt, who leans toward the current winner-take-all system, an amended version of the pre-Civil War 1960 legislation. The 1960 version, used in the 2009 polls, adopts the administrative unit of the qada as the so-called “small” electoral district, while the Taif Accord stipulates the larger governorate as the electoral constituency. Splitting the difference is Charbel’s draft, which can be termed as relying on medium-sized districts. Jumblatt’s former allies in the March 14 coalition hinted this week they will not endorse the Charbel draft if it curbs the influence of the PSP leader. Beirut lawmaker Ammar Houri of the Future Movement, the coalition’s largest component, said that conditions weren’t ripe for adopting proportional representation. A source closely involved in efforts to draft a modern electoral law told The Daily Star leaders were uninterested in political reform at this stage. “Political uncertainty, particularly in Syria, leaves leaders uninterested and with no desire to push for elections [to be held],” the source said. “The [current situation] in the country also lowers [electoral] reform prospects.” The source predicted the option of proportional representation will eventually be discarded, in favor of a retaining the majoritarian electoral system. Fadia Kiwan, who heads the Political Science Department at Saint Joseph University, voiced fears that the debate over the electoral law would drag on, putting the elections in jeopardy, but said that using a law based on the 1960s could be dangerous for the country. “The issue is seriously worrying,” she said. “Adopting a version of the pre-Civil War 1960 electoral law will have dangerous repercussions, including reinventing the same corrupt political class.” The 1972 polls, the last held before the war, took place based on the 1960 law. Activists pushing for a modern election law oppose the 1960 legislation, saying it resulted in the election of politicians who fought bloody wars for a period of 15 years, and they fear a revival of the conflict in the event a similar law is approved. Attempts at electoral reform have been largely unsuccessful and Khashan argued that previous electoral laws were never “carefully considered strategies” – instead, they catered to the interests and ambitions of the political class. Kiwan spoke about what she dubs “politically reassuring electoral laws,” saying that these have been the norm since the founding of modern Lebanon. “Jumblatt will be terribly bothered if he’s denied the privilege of choosing the representatives of the Druze and Christian communities in Aley and the Chouf,” she said. In 2006, the government-appointed National Commission for a New Electoral Law, known as the Boutros Commission, authored a draft law that proposed major changes to the electoral system, but the recommendations have since been shelved. The Boutros Commission called for a hybrid electoral law, under which 77 of Parliament’s 128 members would be elected by winner-take-all, and the remaining 51 members would be elected by proportional representation. “All laws so far have been devised only a few weeks before the date of elections,” Khashan said. “They are tailored to get at somebody by weakening them, or promoting somebody by boosting their representation.” Although major political players have yet to announce a public clear-cut stance regarding the 2013 polls, Charbel maintains that all groups in the Cabinet, with the exception of the three ministers affiliated with Jumblatt, support his plan. Khashan said that while it is still premature to predict Jumblatt’s final stance on the issue of parliamentary elections, given his frequent repositioning, the debate over the electoral law is being used as a “scarecrow.” “It is a means to put pressure on Jumblatt,” said the analyst. “But in the end Jumblatt will have it his way.” Hezbollah, the Chouf MP’s ally since 2009, criticized proponents of the 1960 law, saying such stances have dealt a blow to all of the public talk about political reform. Jumblatt’s other long-term ally, Speaker Nabih Berri, has consistently voiced support for a proportional representation-based system. However this week, Berri voiced his irritation over the size of districts proposed in the Charbel law, arguing that they ought to be made bigger so as to ensure fairer representation. Under Charbel’s draft law, Lebanon would be divided into 10 to 14 medium-sized districts. The source, who is involved in drafting a new electoral law, said Charbel’s plan does not reflect the true essence of proportional representation. “The larger the district, the more effective the representation,” the source said. Kiwan revealed that a number of civil society activists were gathering forces to form pressure groups to press for a “truly” representative electoral law. She said Lebanon could not afford to resist the wave of change swirling around it, adding that “outdated laws that ferment corruption and blackmail” were no longer viable. “It’s high time for the country to move away from sectarian competition and more toward political competition, and this is ensured through proportional representation, for example,” she said. But Khashan disagreed, saying the country’s political future did not hinge solely on the electoral law issue. “The sectarian mentality will remain in place,” he said. “Let’s not blame it all on the electoral law.”