Any recovery in oil prices and a rebalancing of the market in the second half of 2017 will depend heavily on demand, according to a prominent energy analyst.
The fourth quarter usually sees annual demand for oil peak, with a possible market recovery hinging on how that helps reduce excess oil stockpiled globally, said Kuwaiti analyst Mohammed Al-Shatti.
“There is no doubt that demand will have the final say in the second half and recovery will be a demand story,” he told Arab News.
Morgan Stanley, the international investment bank, said in a report on Aug. 7 that it sees signs that oil demand may be accelerating.
One of the indicators for the optimism is the amount of oil that crude refineries worldwide are using. Refinery runs in the US, Europe, China, India and Brazil — which make up around half of the world’s refining capacity — are at a “staggering” 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd) above last year’s levels, Morgan Stanley said.
Saudi Energy Minister Khalid Al-Falih said in Russia last month that he expects demand to be robust in the second of half of this year and it may be higher by around 2 million bpd compared to the first half, leaving the year average at around 1.6 million bpd higher.
The focus on demand came after growth in supply worldwide showed a slowdown, and receding fears over rising supply from Nigeria and Libya, the two members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) who were exempted from the cuts deal.
Libya and Nigeria are still battling to reach their production targets despite both nations pumping at a very high level in July.
Saudi Arabia and Russia led a group of 24 producers into a deal to cut production this year to restore balance in the market after a high oil supply left crude prices at their lowest levels in six years. The agreement, which came into effect at the start of the year, brings together OPEC and non-OPEC nations in an effort to take as much as 1.8 million barrels of oil a day off the market.
Francisco Blanch, Bank of America’s global head of commodities research, told Bloomberg TV in an interview on Aug. 7 that OPEC will “sit there and hope the market demand for oil continues to improve and eventually we will see a rebalancing.”
OPEC has to stick to its strategy and hope that demand takes spot prices higher, Blanch said, while predicting forward prices for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude to remain below $50 this year.
OPEC’s plan to cut production has “misfired” and the group would have been better with a deeper cut for a shorter period of time, Blanch said.
Al-Shatti said that, in spite of the optimism, there is always the risk that demand growth will not materialize as expected.
Yet so far, all the signs are still positive and refining margins worldwide are high and encouraging refineries to use more crude, he added.

Source: Arab News