Yemen: Political settlement in danger, all options available

Yemeni President Abdrabuh Mansour Hadi The effort's of Yemen's President Abdrabuh Mansour Hadi to achieve the objectives of the transitional period stated in the GCC initiative for the power transfer have been hindered by several issues. These threaten any political settlement in the country, which witnessed a people's uprising in 2011 against former president Ali Abdullah Saleh's regime.
Despite the fact that President Hadi enjoys the support of the main local, regional and international powers involved in the Yemen, he however still finds it difficult to make any significant changes since he was elected president on February 21, 2012, nearly a year after the uprising broke out.
Political sources in Yemen, have asserted that most of the difficulties standing in the way of Hadi's pursuits are linked to the stubbornness of his predecessor, Saleh.
Saleh is still keeping his position as a chairman of the ruling Genaral People's Congress party, in which Hadi, who was Saleh's vice president, occupies the position of secretary-general. The GPC's deputy chairman, Abdelkarim al-Eriani, was reported to try more than once to convince Saleh to step down due to his partisan position, but it seems like his attempts were not fruitful. This issue was what triggered Hadi to boycott the party's sessions.
The other issue which escalated the tension between the two men, is to do with the control of Yemen's military, particularly the persistence of Saleh's eldest son, Ahmed, who leads the Republican Guard Forces, the most powerful faction of Yemen's army, to ignore Hadi's orders to have him replaced.
In addition to the problems related to Saleh, President Hadi faces a tough challenge in fighting al-Qaeda-linked groups, who have seized many of Yemen's southern cities during the early stages of the uprising. Clashes have also taken place for several weeks now in Abyan province and other southern provinces between al-Qaeda and Yemeni troops, with dozens of casualties every day.
All these problems resulted in the delay of a national political dialogue, which was planned to be held in the beginning of  May, and was expected to find solutions for the most critical issues of the transitional period. Key among these is the insurgency in Yemen's restive south, where inhabitants are calling for independence after more than 22 years of unification. There is also the issue of the northern province of Saada, controlled by the Shiite Houthis, who were involved in six major military confrontations against the former regime. The congress is also expected to assess political reforms which were supposed to be achieved in the transitional period, as well as draft a new constitution for the country.
The complicated internal issues have doubled the importance of regional and international pressure to push for the implementation of all the terms of the GCC Initiatve. The UN envoy for Yemen, Jamal Ben Omar, looked optimistic in his last briefing to the UN security council about the development's of the transitional process in Yemen. He did however also express some worries.
"President Hadi showed strong leadership and unwavering determination to lead the country at the present stage," he said.
"Yemen's transition is taking place against a backdrop of serious security concerns, an unprecedented humanitarian crisis and many unresolved conflicts. The timeline for the transition is very tight and there is no time to lose", Ben Omar added.
The UN envoy said that one of Yemen's key challenges is to assert the authority of the State in an environment dominated by a multitude of armed non-State players who are competing for power.
He said that al-Qaeda continued to pose a major threat, adding: "however, President Hadi's efforts to combat the advance of al-Qaeda in the south and elsewhere are beginning to bear fruit".
Ben Omar pointed to the recent rising tension due to the refusal of executing the president's decrees to change some military commanders.
"The Latest developments have revealed the main causes of tension remain and obstruct President Hadi's reorganisation and control of the military and security forces, which could derail Yemen's fragile transition process and result in serious instability".
Ben Omar said: "the patience of the international community has started to run out, and those encouraging obstruction of the deal behind the scenes will be sanctioned".
Moreover, the UN envoy indicated that the comprehensive national dialogue will take place during the second phase of the transition period.
He said that the dialogue, is very important and could help keep a smooth democratic transition on the right track in the country.
"A planned national dialogue bringing together all sectors of society, could shape the country's democratic future and create greater stability and security", he said.
"The success or failure of the national dialogue is likely to make or break Yemen's transition," Ben Omar said, stressing that the UN's top priority in the coming months will be to help ensure its success.